Federal Victimization Survey Shows 25% Drop in Serious Violent Crime Rate in 2025, Preliminary Estimates Say

What happened

The Bureau of Justice Statistics published preliminary 2025 estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey on October 26, 2026 ^[1]. The survey asks a nationally representative sample of households about crimes they experienced, whether or not those crimes were reported to police, so it measures something different from police-recorded crime ^[1][2]. By its count, the rate of violent crime excluding simple assault fell 25%, from 9.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 7.4 per 1,000 in 2025 ^[1]. The rate of property victimization fell 19%, from 138.0 to 111.2 per 1,000 households ^[1].

The Justice Department release adds that aggravated assault fell 31%, from 4.5 to 3.1 per 1,000, and that burglary or trespassing fell 25% and motor vehicle theft 30% ^[2]. It says the rates of violent crime, property victimization, burglary or trespassing and motor vehicle theft fell significantly ^[2]. BJS stresses that the figures are preliminary and may change when it publishes final estimates in Criminal Victimization, 2025, forthcoming in 2027 ^[1].

How it affects Americans

The survey is the federal government's main measure of crime as residents experience it, including incidents never reported to police ^[2]. A lower rate of serious violent victimization means U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced robbery, rape or sexual assault, and aggravated assault at a lower rate in 2025 than in 2024, by the survey's preliminary count ^[1][2]. BJS puts the total at 7.5 million violent victimizations in 2025, including simple assault ^[1].

The Veil Press view

The drop is large and deserves attention, but the data have limits readers should know. BJS moved fully to a redesigned survey in January 2025 and says the new estimates are not comparable to the old ones ^[1]. The White House calls this the largest one-year reduction in violent crime in the report's history and credits the President's policies ^[3]. Those are the administration's claims; the BJS page does not make either one ^[1][3].

What we know

Confirmed

• The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault fell 25%, from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, from 2024 to 2025 ^[1].
• The rate of property victimization fell 19%, from 138.0 to 111.2 per 1,000 households ^[1].
• Aggravated assault fell 31%, burglary or trespassing 25% and motor vehicle theft 30%, according to the Justice Department ^[2].
• The estimates are preliminary; final figures are due in 2027 ^[1].

Still being reported

• The White House lists robberies as down 27%; that figure does not appear on the BJS page or in the Justice Department release cited here ^[3].
• The White House describes the decline as the largest one-year reduction in the report's history ^[3].