Fed Opens Two-Day Meeting With Rates Expected to Hold at 3.75% to 4%; Decision Due Wednesday

What happened

The Federal Open Market Committee began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, according to the Fed's published calendar, which lists the meeting as October 27-28 ^[3]. The rate decision has not been announced. CBS News says the Fed is scheduled to release it at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday ^[2]. CNBC reports that markets overwhelmingly expect no change in benchmark rates, following September's quarter percentage point increase ^[1].

CBS News says most economists and Wall Street analysts expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.75% to 4% ^[2]. CBS also reports that Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference after the decision ^[2]. CNBC says investors will be looking for clues about future moves from Warsh in particular ^[1].

The meeting follows a September reading of consumer inflation at 3.7% a year, with core inflation at 2.6% ^[1][2]. CBS says gasoline above $4 a gallon accounted for more than half of that September increase ^[2].

How it affects Americans

The Fed's rate sets the price of borrowing across the economy, so the meeting matters for mortgages, car loans and credit cards. CNBC reports that the housing market is under pressure from mortgage rates above 7% ^[1]. CBS notes that the meeting comes shortly before the November 3 midterm elections, with many Americans frustrated by rising costs for gas, food and utilities ^[2]. A decision to hold would leave borrowing costs where they are now, and any signal about further increases would matter to anyone planning a home purchase or carrying a variable-rate balance.

The Veil Press view

The Fed's choices fall on every household, yet CBS News says Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has argued against sharing forward guidance on rate decisions ^[2]. CNBC describes his preference as letting markets take their own signals from incoming data ^[1]. Households that plan around rates get less warning. Reasonable people disagree on the policy: CNBC quotes Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, as expecting further increases while arguing they are the wrong policy and will hit housing and consumer loans ^[1]. Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, is quoted by the same report as expecting a signal that more tightening will likely be needed over time ^[1]. Readers should wait for Wednesday's statement and press conference before drawing conclusions about what the Fed will do next.

What we know

Confirmed

• The FOMC meets October 27-28, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve's calendar ^[3].
• Both reports agree that the decision is due Wednesday and that a hold is widely expected ^[1][2].
• Both reports give September consumer inflation as 3.7% a year and core inflation as 2.6% ^[1][2].
• Both reports say the Fed raised rates by a quarter percentage point in September ^[1][2].

Still being reported

• CBS News says traders see an 88% probability of a hold in October and a 71% probability of an increase in December ^[2]. CNBC cites a better than 80% probability of a December increase ^[1].
• A CNBC survey of 30 fund managers, strategists and economists found 93% expect a pause this week and 76% expect an increase in December ^[4].
• Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote to clients that the chairman is likely to signal further tightening will likely be needed over time ^[1].